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IEA Says Iran's Oil Exports Might Decline To Lowest Levels In Decades

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh speaks during the 24th International Oil, Gas, Refining & Petrochemical Exhibition at Tehran, May 01, 2019

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says it is monitoring the situation of world oil supplies following the attack on tankers at Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates and drome attacks on Saudi oil installations.

In its latest report published May 15 the agency speaks about “mixed signals”, in view of ample supplies but persisting threats, such as restrictions on Iran and Venezuela crude exports, instability in Libya and possible conflict around the Persian Gulf.

Bloomberg quotes the more detailed IEA report, which is not publicly accessible, as saying that Iran oil exports this month are expected to drop to their lowest “in decades”, which could mean its export levels during the 1980’s war with Iraq. For example, in 1981, Iran’s total export of crude and petroleum products was just 855 barrels per day, according to OPEC data.

In the last few months, Iran’s crude exports was reduced to nearly one million barrels per day.

IEA notes the end to U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian oil, but it adds that prices have not really gone up, instead, “there have been clear and, in the IEA’s view, very welcome signals from other producers that they will step in to replace Iran’s barrels, albeit gradually in response to requests from customers.”